any　German　ascendancy　at　sea；　an　entirely　convincing　case；　that
  such　an　ascendancy　would　be　used　ruthlessly　for　the　advancement
  of　German　world　power。　　The　long…standing　freedom　of　the　seas
  vanishes　at　the　German　touch。　　So　beyond　the　present　war　there
  opens　the　agreeable　prospect　of　a　mercantile　struggle；　a　bitter
  freight　war　and　a　war　of　Navigation　Acts　for　the　ultimate　control
  in　the　interests　of　Germany　or　of　the　Anti…German　allies；　of　the
  world's　trade。
  Now　how　in　any　of　these　three　cases　can　the　bargaining　and
  trickery　of　diplomatists　and　the　advantage…hunting　of　the
  belligerents　produce　any　stable　and　generally　beneficial
  solution？　　What　all　the　neutrals　want；　what　every　rational　and
  far…sighted　man　in　the　belligerent　countries　wants；　what　the
  common　sense　of　the　whole　world　demands；　is　neither　the
  〃ascendancy〃　of　Germany　nor　the　〃ascendancy〃　of　Great　Britain　nor
  the　〃ascendancy〃　of　any　state　or　people　or　interest　in　the
  shipping　of　the　world。　　The　plain　right　thing　is　a　world　shipping
  control；　as　impartial　as　the　Postal　Union。　　What　right　and　reason
  and　the　welfare　of　coming　generations　demand　in　Poland　is　a
  unified　and　autonomous　Poland；　with　Cracow；　Danzig；　and　Posen
  brought　into　the　same　Polish…speaking　ring…fence　with　Warsaw。
  What　everyone　who　has　looked　into　the　Albanian　question　desires
  is　that　the　Albanians　shall　pasture　their　flocks　and　market　their
  sheepskins　in　peace；　free　of　Serbian　control。　　In　every　country
  at　present　at　war；　the　desire　of　the　majority　of　people　is　for　a
  non…contentious　solution　that　will　neither　crystallise　a　triumph
  nor　propitiate　an　enemy；　but　which　will　embody　the　economic　and
  ethnological　and　geographical　common　sense　of　the　matter。　　But
  while　the　formulae　of　national　belligerence　are　easy；
  familiar；　blatant；　and　instantly　present；　the　gentler；　greater
  formulae　of　that　wider　and　newer　world　pacifism　has　still　to
  be　generally　understood。　　It　is　so　much　easier　to　hate　and
  suspect　than　negotiate　generously　and　patiently；　it　is　so　much
  harder　to　think　than　to　let　go　in　a　shrill　storm　of　hostility。
  The　rational　pacifist　is　hampered　not　only　by　belligerency；　but
  by　a　sort　of　malignant　extreme　pacifism　as　impatient　and　silly　as
  the　extremest　patriotism。
  5
  I　sketch　out　these　ideas　of　a　world　pacification　from　a　third…
  party　standpoint；　because　I　find　them　crystallising　out　in　men's
  minds。　　I　note　how　men　discuss　the　suggestion　that　America　may
  play　a　large　part　in　such　a　permanent　world　pacification。　　There
  I　end　my　account　rendered。　　These　things　are　as　much　a　part　of　my
  impression　of　the　war　as　a　shell…burst　on　the　Carso　or　the　yellow
  trenches　at　Martinpuich。　　But　I　do　not　know　how　opinion　is　going
  in　America；　and　I　am　quite　unable　to　estimate　the　power　of　these
  new　ideas　I　set　down；　relative　to　the　blind　forces　of　instinct
  and　tradition　that　move　the　mass　of　mankind。　　On　the　whole　I
  believe　more　in　the　reason…guided　will…power　of　men　than　I　did　in
  the　early　half　of　1914。　　If　I　am　doubtful　whether　after　all　this
  war　will　〃end　war；〃　I　think　on　the　other　hand　it　has　had　such　an
  effect　of　demonstration　that　it　may　start　a　process　of　thought
  and　conviction；　it　may　sow　the　world　with　organisations　and
  educational　movements　considerable　enough　to　grapple　with　an
  either　arrest　or　prevent　the　next　great　war　catastrophe。　　I　am　by
  no　means　sure　even　now　that　this　is　not　the　last　great　war　in　the
  experience　of　men。　　I　still　believe　it　may　be。
  The　most　dangerous　thing　in　the　business　so　far　is　concerned　is
  the　wide　disregard　of　the　fact　that　national　economic　fighting　is
  bound　to　cause　war；　and　the　almost　universal　ignorance　of　the
  necessity　of　subjecting　shipping　and　overseas　and　international
  trade　to　some　kind　of　international　control。　　These　two　things；
  restraint　of　trade　and　advantage　of　shipping；　are　the　chief
  material　causes　of　anger　between　modern　states。　　But　they　would
  not　be　in　themselves　dangerous　things　if　it　were　not　for　the
  exaggerated　delusions　of　kind　and　difference；　and　the　crack…
  brained　〃loyalties〃　arising　out　of　these；　that　seem　still　to　rule
  men's　minds。　　Years　ago　I　came　to　the　conviction　that　much　of　the
  evil　in　human　life　was　due　to　the　inherent　vicious　disposition　of
  the　human　mind　to　intensify　classification。＇*See　my　〃First　and
  Last　Things；〃　Book　I。　and　my　〃Modern　Utopia；〃　Chapter　X。＇　I　do
  not　know　how　it　will　strike　the　reader；　but　to　me　this　war；　this
  slaughter　of　eight　or　nine　million　people；　is　due　almost　entirely
  to　this　little；　almost　universal　lack　of　clear…headedness；　I
  believe　that　the　share　of　wickedness　in　making　war　is　quite
  secondary　to　the　share　of　this　universal　shallow　silliness　of
  outlook。　　These　effigies　of　emperors　and　kings　and　statesmen　that
  lead　men　into　war；　these　legends　of　nationality　and　glory；　would
  collapse　before　our　universal　derision；　if　they　were　not　stuffed
  tight　and　full　with　the　unthinking　folly　of　the　common　man。
  There　is　in　all　of　us　an　indolent　capacity　for　suffering　evil　and
  dangerous　things；　that　I　contemplate　each　year　of　my　life　with　a
  deepening　incredulity。　　I　perceive　we　suffer　them；　I　record　the
  futile　protests　of　the　intelligence。　　It　seems　to　me　incredible
  that　men　should　not　rise　up　out　of　this　muddy；　bloody；　wasteful
  mess　of　a　world　war；　with　a　resolution　to　end　for　ever　the　shams；
  the　prejudices；　the　pretences　and　habits　that　have　impoverished
  their　lives；　slaughtered　our　sons；　and　wasted　the　world；　a
  resolution　so　powerful　and　sustained　that　nothing　could　withstand
  it。
  But　it　is　not　apparent　that　any　such　will　arises。　　Does　it　appear
  at　all？　　I　find　it　hard　to　answer　that　question　because　my　own
  answer　varies　with　my　mood。　　There　are　moods　when　it　seems　to　me
  that　nothing　of　the　sort　is　happening。　　This　war　has　written　its
  warning　in　letters　of　blood　and　flame　and　anguish　in　the　skies　of
  mankind　for　two　years　and　a　half。　　When　I　look　for　the　collective
  response　to　that　warning；　I　see　a　multitude　of　little　chaps
  crawling　about　their　private　ends　like　mites　in　an　old　cheese。
  The　kings　are　still　in　their　places；　not　a　royal　prince　has　been
  killed　in　this　otherwise　universal　slaughter；　when　the　fatuous
  portraits　of　the　monarchs　flash　upon　the　screen　the　widows　and
  orphans　still　break　into　loyal　song。　　The　ten　thousand　religions
  of　mankind　are　still　ten　thousand　religions；　all　busy　at　keeping
  men　apart　and　hostile。　　I　see　scarcely　a　measurable　step　made
  anywhere　towards　that　world　kingdom　of　God；　which　is；　I　assert；
  the　manifest　solution；　the　only　formula　that　can　bring　peace　to
  all　mankind。　　Mankind　as　a　whole　seems　to　have　learnt　nothing　and
  forgotten　nothing　in　thirty　months　of　war。
  And　then　on　the　other　hand　I　am　aware　of　much　quiet　talking。
  This　book　tells　of　how　I　set　out　to　see　the　war；　and　it　is
  largely　conversation。。。。　　Perhaps　men　have　always　expected
  miracles　to　happen；　if　one　had　always　lived　in　the　night　and　only
  heard　tell　of　the　day；　I　suppose　one　would　have　expected　dawn　to
  come　as　a　vivid　flash　of　light。　　I　suppose　one　would　still　think
  it　was　night　long　after　the　things　about　one　had　crept　out　of　the
  darkness　into　visibility。　　In　comparison　with　all　previous　wars
  there　has　been　much　more　thinking　and　much　more　discussion。　　If
  most　of　the　talk　seems　to　be　futile；　if　it　seems　as　if　everyone
  were　talking　and　nobody　doing；　it　does　not　follow　that　things　are
  not　quietly　slipping　and　sliding　out　of　their　old　adjustments
  amidst　the　babble　and　because　of　the　babble。　　Multitudes　of　men
  must　be　struggling　with　new　ideas。　　It　is　reasonable　to　argue
  that　there　must　be　reconsideration；　there　must　be　time；　before
  these　millions　of　mental　efforts　can　develop　into　a　new
  collective　purpose　and　really　/show/in　consequences。
  But　that　they　will　do　so　is　my　hope　always　and；　on　the　whole；
  except　in　moods　of　depression　and　impatience；　my　belief。　　When
  one　has　travelled　to　a　conviction　so　great　as　mine　it　is
  difficult　to　doubt　that　other　men　faced　by　the　same　universal
  facts　will　not　come　to　the　same　conclusion。　　I　believe　that　only
  through　a　complete　simplification　o　religion　to　its　fundamental
  idea；　to　a　world…wide　realisation　of　God　as　the　king　of　the　heart
  and　of　all　mankind；　setting　aside　monarchy　and　national　egotism
  altogether；　can　mankind　come　to　any　certain　happiness　and
  security。　　The　precedent　of　Islam　helps　my　faith　in　the　creative
  inspiration　of　such　a　renascence　of　religion。　　The　Sikh；　the
  Moslem；　the　Puritan　have　shown　that　men　can　fight　better　for　a
  Divine　Idea　than　for　any　flag　or　monarch　in　the　world。　　It　seems
  to　me　that　illusions　fade　and　effigies　lose　credit　everywhere。
  It　is　a　very　wonderful　thing　to　me　that　China　is　now　a
  republic。。。。　　I　take　myself　to　be　very　nearly　an　average　man；
  abnormal　only　by　reason　of　a　certain　mental　rapidity。　　I　conceive
  myself　to　be　thinking　as　the　world　thinks；　and　if　I　find　no　great
  facts；　I　find　a　hundred　little　indications　to　reassure　me　that
  God　comes。　　Even　those　who　have　neither　the　imagination　nor　the
  faith　to　apprehend　God　as　a　reality　will；　I　think；　realise
  presently　that　the　Kingdom　of　God　over　a　world…wide　system　of
  republican　states；　is　the　only　possible　formula　under　which　we
  may　hope　to　unify　and　save　mankind。