imagination　or　the　most　subtle　exercise　of　the　reason　is　as　much
  the　thing　that　must　arise；　and　the　only　thing　that　can　by　any
  possibility　arise；　at　the　moment　of　its　arising；　as　the　falling　of
  a　dead　leaf　when　the　wind　shakes　it　from　the　tree。
  〃For　the　future　depends　upon　the　present；　and　the　present　（whose
  existence　is　only　one　of　those　minor　compromises　of　which　human
  life　is　fullfor　it　lives　only　on　sufferance　of　the　past　and
  future）　depends　upon　the　past；　and　the　past　is　unalterable。　　The
  only　reason　why　we　cannot　see　the　future　as　plainly　as　the　past；　is
  because　we　know　too　little　of　the　actual　past　and　actual　present；
  these　things　are　too　great　for　us；　otherwise　the　future；　in　its
  minutest　details；　would　lie　spread　out　before　our　eyes；　and　we
  should　lose　our　sense　of　time　present　by　reason　of　the　clearness
  with　which　we　should　see　the　past　and　future；　perhaps　we　should　not
  be　even　able　to　distinguish　time　at　all；　but　that　is　foreign。　　What
  we　do　know　is；　that　the　more　the　past　and　present　are　known；　the
  more　the　future　can　be　predicted；　and　that　no　one　dreams　of
  doubting　the　fixity　of　the　future　in　cases　where　he　is　fully
  cognisant　of　both　past　and　present；　and　has　had　experience　of　the
  consequences　that　followed　from　such　a　past　and　such　a　present　on
  previous　occasions。　　He　perfectly　well　knows　what　will　happen；　and
  will　stake　his　whole　fortune　thereon。
  〃And　this　is　a　great　blessing；　for　it　is　the　foundation　on　which
  morality　and　science　are　built。　　The　assurance　that　the　future　is
  no　arbitrary　and　changeable　thing；　but　that　like　futures　will
  invariably　follow　like　presents；　is　the　groundwork　on　which　we　lay
  all　our　plansthe　faith　on　which　we　do　every　conscious　action　of
  our　lives。　　If　this　were　not　so　we　should　be　without　a　guide；　we
  should　have　no　confidence　in　acting；　and　hence　we　should　never　act；
  for　there　would　be　no　knowing　that　the　results　which　will　follow
  now　will　be　the　same　as　those　which　followed　before。
  〃Who　would　plough　or　sow　if　he　disbelieved　in　the　fixity　of　the
  future？　　Who　would　throw　water　on　a　blazing　house　if　the　action　of
  water　upon　fire　were　uncertain？　　Men　will　only　do　their　utmost　when
  they　feel　certain　that　the　future　will　discover　itself　against　them
  if　their　utmost　has　not　been　done。　　The　feeling　of　such　a　certainty
  is　a　constituent　part　of　the　sum　of　the　forces　at　work　upon　them；
  and　will　act　most　powerfully　on　the　best　and　most　moral　men。　　Those
  who　are　most　firmly　persuaded　that　the　future　is　immutably　bound　up
  with　the　present　in　which　their　work　is　lying；　will　best　husband
  their　present；　and　till　it　with　the　greatest　care。　　The　future　must
  be　a　lottery　to　those　who　think　that　the　same　combinations　can
  sometimes　precede　one　set　of　results；　and　sometimes　another。　　If
  their　belief　is　sincere　they　will　speculate　instead　of　working：
  these　ought　to　be　the　immoral　men；　the　others　have　the　strongest
  spur　to　exertion　and　morality；　if　their　belief　is　a　living　one。
  〃The　bearing　of　all　this　upon　the　machines　is　not　immediately
  apparent；　but　will　become　so　presently。　　In　the　meantime　I　must
  deal　with　friends　who　tell　me　that；　though　the　future　is　fixed　as
  regards　inorganic　matter；　and　in　some　respects　with　regard　to　man；
  yet　that　there　are　many　ways　in　which　it　cannot　be　considered　as
  fixed。　　Thus；　they　say　that　fire　applied　to　dry　shavings；　and　well
  fed　with　oxygen　gas；　will　always　produce　a　blaze；　but　that　a　coward
  brought　into　contact　with　a　terrifying　object　will　not　always
  result　in　a　man　running　away。　　Nevertheless；　if　there　be　two
  cowards　perfectly　similar　in　every　respect；　and　if　they　be
  subjected　in　a　perfectly　similar　way　to　two　terrifying　agents；
  which　are　themselves　perfectly　similar；　there　are　few　who　will　not
  expect　a　perfect　similarity　in　the　running　away；　even　though　a
  thousand　years　intervene　between　the　original　combination　and　its
  being　repeated。
  〃The　apparently　greater　regularity　in　the　results　of　chemical　than
  of　human　combinations　arises　from　our　inability　to　perceive　the
  subtle　differences　in　human　combinationscombinations　which　are
  never　identically　repeated。　　Fire　we　know；　and　shavings　we　know；
  but　no　two　men　ever　were　or　ever　will　be　exactly　alike；　and　the
  smallest　difference　may　change　the　whole　conditions　of　the　problem。
  Our　registry　of　results　must　be　infinite　before　we　could　arrive　at
  a　full　forecast　of　future　combinations；　the　wonder　is　that　there　is
  as　much　certainty　concerning　human　action　as　there　is；　and
  assuredly　the　older　we　grow　the　more　certain　we　feel　as　to　what
  such　and　such　a　kind　of　person　will　do　in　given　circumstances；　but
  this　could　never　be　the　case　unless　human　conduct　were　under　the
  influence　of　laws；　with　the　working　of　which　we　become　more　and
  more　familiar　through　experience。
  〃If　the　above　is　sound；　it　follows　that　the　regularity　with　which
  machinery　acts　is　no　proof　of　the　absence　of　vitality；　or　at　least
  of　germs　which　may　be　developed　into　a　new　phase　of　life。　　At　first
  sight　it　would　indeed　appear　that　a　vapour…engine　cannot　help　going
  when　set　upon　a　line　of　rails　with　the　steam　up　and　the　machinery
  in　full　play；　whereas　the　man　whose　business　it　is　to　drive　it　can
  help　doing　so　at　any　moment　that　he　pleases；　so　that　the　first　has
  no　spontaneity；　and　is　not　possessed　of　any　sort　of　free　will；
  while　the　second　has　and　is。
  〃This　is　true　up　to　a　certain　point；　the　driver　can　stop　the　engine
  at　any　moment　that　he　pleases；　but　he　can　only　please　to　do　so　at
  certain　points　which　have　been　fixed　for　him　by　others；　or　in　the
  case　of　unexpected　obstructions　which　force　him　to　please　to　do　so。
  His　pleasure　is　not　spontaneous；　there　is　an　unseen　choir　of
  influences　around　him；　which　make　it　impossible　for　him　to　act　in
  any　other　way　than　one。　　It　is　known　beforehand　how　much　strength
  must　be　given　to　these　influences；　just　as　it　is　known　beforehand
  how　much　coal　and　water　are　necessary　for　the　vapour…engine　itself；
  and　curiously　enough　it　will　be　found　that　the　influences　brought
  to　bear　upon　the　driver　are　of　the　same　kind　as　those　brought　to
  bear　upon　the　enginethat　is　to　say；　food　and　warmth。　　The　driver
  is　obedient　to　his　masters；　because　he　gets　food　and　warmth　from
  them；　and　if　these　are　withheld　or　given　in　insufficient　quantities
  he　will　cease　to　drive；　in　like　manner　the　engine　will　cease　to
  work　if　it　is　insufficiently　fed。　　The　only　difference　is；　that　the
  man　is　conscious　about　his　wants；　and　the　engine　（beyond　refusing
  to　work）　does　not　seem　to　be　so；　but　this　is　temporary；　and　has
  been　dealt　with　above。
  〃Accordingly；　the　requisite　strength　being　given　to　the　motives
  that　are　to　drive　the　driver；　there　has　never；　or　hardly　ever；　been
  an　instance　of　a　man　stopping　his　engine　through　wantonness。　　But
  such　a　case　might　occur；　yes；　and　it　might　occur　that　the　engine
  should　break　down：　　but　if　the　train　is　stopped　from　some　trivial
  motive　it　will　be　found　either　that　the　strength　of　the　necessary
  influences　has　been　miscalculated；　or　that　the　man　has　been
  miscalculated；　in　the　same　way　as　an　engine　may　break　down　from　an
  unsuspected　flaw；　but　even　in　such　a　case　there　will　have　been　no
  spontaneity；　the　action　will　have　had　its　true　parental　causes：
  spontaneity　is　only　a　term　for　man's　ignorance　of　the　gods。
  〃Is　there；　then；　no　spontaneity　on　the　part　of　those　who　drive　the
  driver？〃
  Here　followed　an　obscure　argument　upon　this　subject；　which　I　have
  thought　it　best　to　omit。　　The　writer　resumes：…　〃After　all　then　it
  comes　to　this；　that　the　difference　between　the　life　of　a　man　and
  that　of　a　machine　is　one　rather　of　degree　than　of　kind；　though
  differences　in　kind　are　not　wanting。　　An　animal　has　more　provision
  for　emergency　than　a　machine。　　The　machine　is　less　versatile；　its
  range　of　action　is　narrow；　its　strength　and　accuracy　in　its　own
  sphere　are　superhuman；　but　it　shows　badly　in　a　dilemma；　sometimes
  when　its　normal　action　is　disturbed；　it　will　lose　its　head；　and　go
  from　bad　to　worse　like　a　lunatic　in　a　raging　frenzy：　　but　here；
  again；　we　are　met　by　the　same　consideration　as　before；　namely；　that
  the　machines　are　still　in　their　infancy；　they　are　mere　skeletons
  without　muscles　and　flesh。
  〃For　how　many　emergencies　is　an　oyster　adapted？　　For　as　many　as　are
  likely　to　happen　to　it；　and　no　more。　　So　are　the　machines；　and　so
  is　man　himself。　　The　list　of　casualties　that　daily　occur　to　man
  through　his　want　of　adaptability　is　probably　as　great　as　that
  occurring　to　the　machines；　and　every　day　gives　them　some　greater
  provision　for　the　unforeseen。　　Let　any　one　examine　the　wonderful
  self…regulating　and　self…adjusting　contrivances　which　are　now
  incorporated　with　the　vapour…engine；　let　him　watch　the　way　in　which
  it　supplies　itself　with　oil；　in　which　it　indicates　its　wants　to
  those　who　tend　it；　in　which；　by　the　governor；　it　regulates　its
  application　of　its　own　strength；　let　him　look　at　that　store…house
  of　inertia　and　momentum　the　fly…wheel；　or　at　the　buffers　on　a
  railway　carriage；　let　him　see　how　those　improvements　are　being
  selected　for　perpetuity　which　contain　provision　against　the
  emergencies　that　may　arise　to　harass　the　machines；　and　then　let　him
  think　of　a　hundred　thousand　years；　and　the　accumulated　progress
  wh